# Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 60% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 17 May 2026 03:48:03 GMT. 24h change +13.0pp, 24h volume $219.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-75k-in-may-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-dip-to-75k-in-may-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** Jun 1, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-17T03:48:03.161Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **60¢** (60%) |
| Δ 1h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +13.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +17.0pp |
| 24h volume | $219.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $1.0M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $79.4K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 1, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **divergence** (confidence 50%): Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h -1.0pp vs. 24h +13.0pp.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xd1a4…8178` — 22,000 shares
- `0xb3b5…bef4` — 19,992.017 shares
- `0xb50c…215b` — 17,993.32 shares
- `0xede1…7dd1` — 17,919.847 shares
- `0xbdde…76b8` — 14,917.61 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xf17a…7b1f` — 50,815.755 shares
- `0xa0da…1f80` — 25,904.33 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 22,882.517 shares
- `0xcc50…4c82` — 17,710.444 shares
- `0x3a8a…7699` — 14,699.979 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T04:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-17T03:47:06.000Z |
| Range | 31¢ → 64¢ |
| Net change | +17.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-bitcoin-dip-to-75k-in-may-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? — 60% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-17T03:48:03.161Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-75k-in-may-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*