# Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 2?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 04:29:20 GMT. 24h change -15.4pp, 24h volume $131.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-81k-on-may-2
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-reach-81k-on-may-2
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T04:29:20.208Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -15.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $131.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $131.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $238.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) on the date specified in the title, between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x2f76…858f` — 2,265 shares
- `0x5282…1fc9` — 2,091 shares
- `0xe78f…6201` — 2,091 shares
- `0xf3ff…6a08` — 2,088.996 shares
- `0x68c4…9533` — 2,088 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa63c…edb7` — 2,093 shares
- `0x29bc…5ae1` — 2,091 shares
- `0x0afd…3f00` — 2,088 shares
- `0x744d…f0d6` — 2,086 shares
- `0xcbcc…c84b` — 2,085 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 25 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T05:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T04:29:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 16¢ |
| Net change | -15.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-bitcoin-reach-81k-on-may-2` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 2? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T04:29:20.208Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-81k-on-may-2.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*