# Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 05:28:16 GMT. 24h change -0.9pp, 24h volume $135.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-82k-april-27-may-3
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-reach-82k-april-27-may-3
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 4, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T05:28:16.059Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.9pp |
| Δ 1w | -27.5pp |
| 24h volume | $135.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $340.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $62.5K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 4, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xd78f…9cff` — 9,616.197 shares
- `0x3020…b2de` — 8,442.701 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 7,002.226 shares
- `0xda6b…a403` — 6,985.276 shares
- `0x3c5a…0a4f` — 4,528.994 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x55e2…5fc9` — 26,360.18 shares
- `0x4699…e03c` — 10,500.44 shares
- `0x21c5…3533` — 9,241.393 shares
- `0x6765…fa0d` — 7,096.289 shares
- `0x2a3d…2068` — 6,889.997 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-27T06:00:11.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-04T05:28:04.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 27¢ |
| Net change | -25.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-bitcoin-reach-82k-april-27-may-3` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T05:28:16.059Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-82k-april-27-may-3.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*