# Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on May 15?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 00:34:27 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $204.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-84k-on-may-15
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-reach-84k-on-may-15
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T00:34:27.309Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $204.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $204.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $68.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) on the date specified in the title, between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 3h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc0a6…2d6c` — 202,000 shares
- `0x1414…18fc` — 1,848.151 shares
- `0xc10b…c27e` — 141.8 shares
- `0x3329…43a6` — 100 shares
- `0x613b…da44` — 99.996 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xff7b…9179` — 202,000.53 shares
- `0xe626…6771` — 1,814.724 shares
- `0xeaa3…eec2` — 173.173 shares
- `0x726f…d8e7` — 100 shares
- `0xec99…146d` — 100 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 20 |
| Window start | 2026-05-15T05:00:13.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T00:34:08.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 9¢ |
| Net change | -8.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-bitcoin-reach-84k-on-may-15` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on May 15? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T00:34:27.309Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-84k-on-may-15.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*