# Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 56% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 17:16:02 GMT. 24h change +14.0pp, 24h volume $157.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-85k-in-may-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-reach-85k-in-may-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** Jun 1, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T17:16:02.690Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **56¢** (56%) |
| Δ 1h | +3.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +14.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $157.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $284.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $50.4K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 1, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 14.0pp in 24h with 3.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x9a5b…c6c1` — 21,999.964 shares
- `0xcc50…4c82` — 12,223.385 shares
- `0x4af7…2381` — 10,956.978 shares
- `0x614d…1546` — 7,000 shares
- `0x801d…d8e0` — 6,999.972 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfcd4…84dd` — 41,531.717 shares
- `0x9fba…56d0` — 19,442.047 shares
- `0x3a8a…7699` — 16,499.981 shares
- `0x7a99…c413` — 7,064.59 shares
- `0xf705…3ca7` — 5,923 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 75 |
| Window start | 2026-05-01T15:00:13.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-04T17:14:07.000Z |
| Range | 38¢ → 56¢ |
| Net change | +4.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-bitcoin-reach-85k-in-may-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? — 56% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T17:16:02.690Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-85k-in-may-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*