# Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 5% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 14 May 2026 20:32:44 GMT. 24h change +1.4pp, 24h volume $235.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-95k-in-may-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-reach-95k-in-may-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** Jun 1, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-14T20:32:44.779Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **5¢** (5%) |
| Δ 1h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +1.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.9pp |
| 24h volume | $235.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $1.1M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $82.6K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 1, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **divergence** (confidence 50%): Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h -1.0pp vs. 24h +1.4pp.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xda6b…a403` — 148,276.708 shares
- `0xe190…0a5d` — 34,107.839 shares
- `0xf705…3ca7` — 26,695.45 shares
- `0x14f7…232c` — 19,476.078 shares
- `0xb5ef…c56a` — 16,721.951 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x67fe…ce55` — 35,102.65 shares
- `0xd83c…19dc` — 31,265.933 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 30,725.53 shares
- `0xb8d2…c66b` — 15,871.014 shares
- `0x801d…d8e0` — 13,999.919 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T21:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-14T20:31:07.000Z |
| Range | 2¢ → 8¢ |
| Net change | +1.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-bitcoin-reach-95k-in-may-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? — 5% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-14T20:32:44.779Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-95k-in-may-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*