# Will Bogdan Guskov be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 6% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 28 May 2026 01:09:35 GMT. 24h change +0.5pp, 24h volume $208.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-bogdan-guskov-be-the-ufc-light-heavyweight-champion-on-december-31-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-bogdan-guskov-be-the-ufc-light-heavyweight-champion-on-december-31-2026
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-28T01:09:35.677Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **6¢** (6%) |
| Δ 1h | -1.7pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.5pp |
| Δ 1w | -2.4pp |
| 24h volume | $208.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $262.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $755.14 |
| Spread | 11.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the official UFC Light Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
> 
> Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
> 
> If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 15%): Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa5e3…4d7e` — 434.949 shares
- `0xe372…eb38` — 149.8 shares
- `0x1ceb…b03c` — 114.193 shares
- `0xadec…3c7b` — 82.89 shares
- `0x7495…7fcf` — 73.93 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 882.1 shares
- `0xae75…dcb7` — 59 shares
- `0x8f34…2f50` — 30 shares
- `0xef1d…0488` — 1.456 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-19T17:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-26T16:03:04.000Z |
| Range | 3¢ → 10¢ |
| Net change | -2.6pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-bogdan-guskov-be-the-ufc-light-heavyweight-champion-on-december-31-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Bogdan Guskov be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? — 6% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-28T01:09:35.677Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-bogdan-guskov-be-the-ufc-light-heavyweight-champion-on-december-31-2026.
```

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