# Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 17 May 2026 02:36:27 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $20.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-byron-donalds-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-byron-donalds-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-17T02:36:27.027Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $20.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $40.7M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $1.5M |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
> 
> Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 10%): Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x801b…e036` — 890,832.577 shares
- `0x1e1f…c855` — 304,000.007 shares
- `0x3cd6…18e4` — 249,614.03 shares
- `0x2ea3…6d4e` — 127,911.707 shares
- `0xa771…162d` — 105,316.937 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 2,168,526.233 shares
- `0xc684…2228` — 3,908.317 shares
- `0x41e2…3ad5` — 3,418.228 shares
- `0x600b…6047` — 2,313.883 shares
- `0x0c97…a855` — 1,287.732 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T03:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-17T02:36:07.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 1¢ |
| Net change | +0.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-byron-donalds-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-17T02:36:27.027Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-byron-donalds-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination.
```

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