# Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 7% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 21:05:02 GMT. 24h change -0.1pp, 24h volume $335.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T21:05:02.627Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **7¢** (7%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 1w | -1.2pp |
| 24h volume | $335.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $23.4M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $979.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc3c3…eec8` — 1,217,707.134 shares
- `0x9c96…8708` — 464,582.386 shares
- `0xb886…81b3` — 395,503.291 shares
- `0x9026…d7e4` — 292,891.483 shares
- `0x6b68…2c57` — 240,778.607 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5bff…ffbe` — 1,266,379.655 shares
- `0xb9d8…275a` — 390,344.783 shares
- `0xa4c3…bbb2` — 294,814.528 shares
- `0x2ec8…f196` — 257,752.272 shares
- `0x3c8a…b45a` — 216,373.648 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-25T22:00:19.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T21:04:07.000Z |
| Range | 6¢ → 8¢ |
| Net change | -1.6pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? — 7% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T21:05:02.627Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027.
```

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