# Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 08:56:33 GMT. 24h change -0.6pp, 24h volume $173.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T08:56:33.953Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.6pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.3pp |
| 24h volume | $173.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $8.1M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $194.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xb886…81b3` — 177,637.594 shares
- `0x396f…f2a8` — 171,615.493 shares
- `0xc3c2…cf77` — 52,057.343 shares
- `0xd980…5be0` — 37,184.944 shares
- `0x10ec…ca30` — 34,999.921 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xe749…f771` — 109,372.99 shares
- `0xc82a…1946` — 106,666.809 shares
- `0xc97b…47e5` — 83,275.214 shares
- `0x4337…8882` — 72,535.21 shares
- `0x5bff…ffbe` — 70,049.65 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T09:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T08:55:06.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 2¢ |
| Net change | -0.3pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T08:56:33.953Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026.
```

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