# Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 07:51:16 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $113.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-chris-murphy-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-chris-murphy-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T07:51:16.139Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.1pp |
| 24h volume | $113.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $14.7M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $1.4M |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
> 
> Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 10%): Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5d18…4972` — 1,182,585.604 shares
- `0x1c14…0869` — 354,821.388 shares
- `0x801b…e036` — 144,271.114 shares
- `0x5cf6…8efa` — 142,860 shares
- `0x2663…ed1f` — 78,978.053 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 2,752,358.237 shares
- `0x37d5…d528` — 1,514.21 shares
- `0x818b…0ac3` — 422.535 shares
- `0xe667…9144` — 363.41 shares
- `0x05f9…a401` — 303.004 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-27T08:00:19.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-04T07:50:05.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 1¢ |
| Net change | -0.1pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-chris-murphy-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T07:51:16.139Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-chris-murphy-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination.
```

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