# Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 20:28:40 GMT. 24h change +0.4pp, 24h volume $418.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-croatia-win-eurovision-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-croatia-win-eurovision-2026
**Category:** Entertainment
**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T20:28:40.542Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.4pp |
| 24h volume | $418.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $3.4M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $91.5K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins.
> 
> If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
> 
> If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc4d1…8ce8` — 369,890.18 shares
- `0x73af…b880` — 190,153.99 shares
- `0x6e6a…fdc0` — 125,231.459 shares
- `0xcf13…7b80` — 72,201.731 shares
- `0x6770…45fb` — 36,857 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 1,104,055.673 shares
- `0x919d…60e1` — 800 shares
- `0x0628…bcd8` — 603.72 shares
- `0xec44…24e2` — 479.397 shares
- `0x8014…57c8` — 402.71 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-29T21:00:21.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T20:27:07.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 1¢ |
| Net change | +0.3pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-croatia-win-eurovision-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T20:28:40.542Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-croatia-win-eurovision-2026.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*