# Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 13% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 21:08:33 GMT. 24h change -6.0pp, 24h volume $200.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-donald-trump-announce-that-the-united-states-blockade-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-has-been-lifted-by-may-15-2026-154
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-donald-trump-announce-that-the-united-states-blockade-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-has-been-lifted-by-may-15-2026-154
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T21:08:33.224Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **13¢** (13%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -6.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $200.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $655.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $51.4K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
> 
> Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify). 
> 
> Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
> 
> Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
> 
> Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
> 
> Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa022…77f8` — 117,124.166 shares
- `0x5188…c804` — 56,518.983 shares
- `0x5925…b194` — 54,682.059 shares
- `0x7494…680d` — 27,848.426 shares
- `0x6a01…7c0a` — 11,999.996 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xf396…ed0d` — 149,868.11 shares
- `0xf9c1…39e2` — 80,232.701 shares
- `0x53e5…6177` — 17,773.678 shares
- `0xcf19…6402` — 14,999.941 shares
- `0xe6d1…b590` — 10,024.051 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 125 |
| Window start | 2026-04-27T17:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T21:08:04.000Z |
| Range | 11¢ → 43¢ |
| Net change | -21.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-donald-trump-announce-that-the-united-states-blockade-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-has-been-lifted-by-may-15-2026-154` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026? — 13% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T21:08:33.224Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-donald-trump-announce-that-the-united-states-blockade-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-has-been-lifted-by-may-15-2026-154.
```

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