# Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 27 May 2026 21:59:07 GMT. 24h change -94.6pp, 24h volume $576.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-donald-trump-dance-on-may-25-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-donald-trump-dance-on-may-25-2026
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-27T21:59:07.766Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.4pp |
| Δ 24h | -94.6pp |
| Δ 1w | -10.5pp |
| 24h volume | $576.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $578.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $210.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `disputed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `disputed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify.
> 
> AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered. 
> 
> Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify.
> 
> This market will resolve based on video footage.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 30%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-19T22:00:21.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-26T21:33:04.000Z |
| Range | 4¢ → 99¢ |
| Net change | +82.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-donald-trump-dance-on-may-25-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-27T21:59:07.766Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-donald-trump-dance-on-may-25-2026.
```

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