# Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 3% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 17 May 2026 04:46:51 GMT. 24h change +0.1pp, 24h volume $163.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-donald-trump-jr-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-donald-trump-jr-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-17T04:46:51.477Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **3¢** (3%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.1pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.4pp |
| 24h volume | $163.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $8.3M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $382.3K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
> 
> Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 10%): Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xf769…0114` — 327,604.902 shares
- `0x1e1f…c855` — 304,064.153 shares
- `0xa771…162d` — 172,906.955 shares
- `0x011f…1122` — 149,814.165 shares
- `0x6a8c…cbb0` — 120,725.577 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 2,168,526.233 shares
- `0x4310…37e1` — 8,604.54 shares
- `0xc4d1…8ce8` — 7,069.597 shares
- `0x1dfd…6247` — 5,044.336 shares
- `0xa8b7…ee3c` — 1,536.013 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T05:00:11.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-17T04:46:07.000Z |
| Range | 2¢ → 3¢ |
| Net change | +0.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-donald-trump-jr-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — 3% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-17T04:46:51.477Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-donald-trump-jr-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination.
```

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