# Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 99% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 29 May 2026 19:40:34 GMT. 24h change +7.0pp, 24h volume $147.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-donald-trump-publicly-insult-someone-on-may-28-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-donald-trump-publicly-insult-someone-on-may-28-2026
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-29T19:40:34.060Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **99¢** (99%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | +7.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +10.2pp |
| 24h volume | $147.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $162.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $50.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `disputed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `disputed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 
> 
> This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
> 
> A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
> 
> Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
> 
> The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 84%): Probability moved up 7.0pp in 24h with 2.9× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 28h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x672f…7fcc` — 44,385.54 shares
- `0xf0d5…c665` — 9,891.154 shares
- `0x1008…6a65` — 7,097.97 shares
- `0xe176…7f65` — 6,042.472 shares
- `0x5d0c…fbd7` — 5,391.454 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa510…1f80` — 39,512.91 shares
- `0xcbef…9ab0` — 21,111.838 shares
- `0xa453…b665` — 9,288.812 shares
- `0x2779…239a` — 8,015.125 shares
- `0xe827…5209` — 4,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T20:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-29T19:40:03.000Z |
| Range | 17¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +11.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-donald-trump-publicly-insult-someone-on-may-28-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? — 99% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-29T19:40:34.060Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-donald-trump-publicly-insult-someone-on-may-28-2026.
```

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