# Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 9% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 16:02:50 GMT. 24h change +2.0pp, 24h volume $301.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-donald-trump-win-the-nobel-peace-prize-in-2026-382
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-donald-trump-win-the-nobel-peace-prize-in-2026-382
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Oct 10, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T16:02:50.423Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **9¢** (9%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +2.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +2.0pp |
| 24h volume | $301.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $3.0M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $507.3K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Oct 10, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
> 
> If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy,  Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
> 
> If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 5%): Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5465…5133` — 294,436.458 shares
- `0xda3f…c282` — 76,680.704 shares
- `0x1934…0a4b` — 58,000 shares
- `0x1de4…be90` — 36,989.937 shares
- `0x327c…86ef` — 35,000.005 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x8df7…36c4` — 78,014.404 shares
- `0x5c14…cc49` — 59,949.85 shares
- `0xa5ef…2966` — 46,845.351 shares
- `0x3c8a…b45a` — 45,374.213 shares
- `0xdf17…97d1` — 44,672.48 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-08T17:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T16:01:21.000Z |
| Range | 7¢ → 9¢ |
| Net change | +2.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-donald-trump-win-the-nobel-peace-prize-in-2026-382` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? — 9% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T16:02:50.423Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-donald-trump-win-the-nobel-peace-prize-in-2026-382.
```

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