# Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 14 May 2026 20:34:16 GMT. 24h change +0.1pp, 24h volume $182.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-dwayne-the-rock-johnson-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-dwayne-the-rock-johnson-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-14T20:34:16.614Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.1pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.1pp |
| 24h volume | $182.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $11.8M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $814.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
> 
> Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 10%): Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x6fe4…5781` — 999,999.998 shares
- `0x5d18…4972` — 635,377.744 shares
- `0xa9f3…62df` — 399,999.981 shares
- `0xd428…6368` — 280,000.001 shares
- `0x588d…0698` — 248,181.818 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 2,755,704.237 shares
- `0x9703…69c2` — 7,612.522 shares
- `0x2c29…7f7e` — 2,912.032 shares
- `0x4e25…d7a7` — 2,364.888 shares
- `0xa876…1a39` — 1,807 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T21:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-14T20:34:08.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 1¢ |
| Net change | +0.1pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-dwayne-the-rock-johnson-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-14T20:34:16.614Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-dwayne-the-rock-johnson-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination.
```

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