# Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 03:30:14 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $167.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-elise-stefanik-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-elise-stefanik-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T03:30:14.459Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.2pp |
| 24h volume | $167.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $24.7M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $1.1M |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
> 
> Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 10%): Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x39d3…963d` — 708,505.646 shares
- `0xa771…162d` — 589,217.572 shares
- `0x1e1f…c855` — 304,000.003 shares
- `0x2663…ed1f` — 143,044.697 shares
- `0x2ea3…6d4e` — 131,027.039 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 2,148,248.623 shares
- `0xb229…1fe4` — 2,419.355 shares
- `0xac62…0bcb` — 1,605.25 shares
- `0x9cf7…f199` — 392 shares
- `0x7995…0717` — 391 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T04:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T03:29:04.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 1¢ |
| Net change | -0.2pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-elise-stefanik-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T03:30:14.459Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-elise-stefanik-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination.
```

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