# Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 20:26:54 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $663.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-erika-kirk-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-erika-kirk-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T20:26:54.773Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $663.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $15.8M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $1.1M |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
> 
> Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 10%): Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x6452…30a1` — 829,038.172 shares
- `0xa771…162d` — 339,402.052 shares
- `0x1e1f…c855` — 304,000.003 shares
- `0x507b…57e1` — 76,401.905 shares
- `0x72bd…2b64` — 33,332.997 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 2,104,626.515 shares
- `0x03e3…77a1` — 2,385.151 shares
- `0x1173…8fc9` — 1,961.771 shares
- `0xa8b7…ee3c` — 1,665.004 shares
- `0x03e5…027f` — 1,032 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-26T21:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T20:25:08.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 1¢ |
| Net change | +0.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-erika-kirk-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T20:26:54.773Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-erika-kirk-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination.
```

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