# Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 3% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 24 May 2026 18:44:16 GMT. 24h change -1.8pp, 24h volume $319.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-by-june-30-259
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-by-june-30-259
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-24T18:44:16.091Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **3¢** (3%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -1.8pp |
| Δ 1w | -1.6pp |
| 24h volume | $319.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $1.9M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $75.9K |
| Spread | 0.20pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
> 
> Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
> 
> Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
> 
> The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x93fb…3e4a` — 160,081.485 shares
- `0x53b9…e613` — 21,885.289 shares
- `0x2c61…d2b2` — 18,209.744 shares
- `0x35ec…6673` — 16,110.708 shares
- `0x0e40…f622` — 14,303.373 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xc021…1fa8` — 146,634.865 shares
- `0xbaa2…2c73` — 90,724.72 shares
- `0x095d…52cf` — 33,755.766 shares
- `0x95bf…e00b` — 15,977.314 shares
- `0x15fd…cc95` — 14,822.293 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-17T19:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-24T18:43:04.000Z |
| Range | 2¢ → 8¢ |
| Net change | -1.6pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-by-june-30-259` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? — 3% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-24T18:44:16.091Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-by-june-30-259.
```

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