# Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 16% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 07:57:50 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $118.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-france-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-924
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-france-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-924
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Jul 20, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T07:57:50.452Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **16¢** (16%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.3pp |
| 24h volume | $118.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $22.9M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $462.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jul 20, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
> 
> If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
> 
> If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x81ef…47f7` — 306,536.223 shares
- `0x5357…3a0d` — 222,646.447 shares
- `0x8ba2…1650` — 210,714.305 shares
- `0x1223…d424` — 184,486.304 shares
- `0x1a16…4335` — 161,122.864 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 7,011,003.946 shares
- `0x4d32…9dfc` — 102,800 shares
- `0xecb9…5a12` — 50,000 shares
- `0x9ba8…cdb3` — 39,905.9 shares
- `0xc9e3…93f2` — 17,397.048 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-26T08:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T07:56:05.000Z |
| Range | 16¢ → 17¢ |
| Net change | -0.3pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-france-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-924` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — 16% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T07:57:50.452Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-france-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-924.
```

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