# Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 26% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 06:01:39 GMT. 24h change +0.1pp, 24h volume $112.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-568
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-568
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T06:01:39.619Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **26¢** (26%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.1pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.8pp |
| 24h volume | $112.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $25.0M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $174.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
> 
> Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 10%): Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x8e5c…a68a` — 326,235.016 shares
- `0x93ab…9723` — 324,118.147 shares
- `0x3e5b…073b` — 228,570.437 shares
- `0xa61e…0abd` — 114,498.692 shares
- `0x3d84…086b` — 88,955.36 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 2,752,358.237 shares
- `0x6e82…752c` — 60,519.61 shares
- `0xac92…9d64` — 25,000 shares
- `0x3275…2e5a` — 3,500 shares
- `0xa2e1…621f` — 3,395.928 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-27T07:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-04T06:00:05.000Z |
| Range | 26¢ → 27¢ |
| Net change | +0.8pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-568` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — 26% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T06:01:39.619Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-568.
```

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