# Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Australian Open?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 19:51:00 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $230.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-grigor-dimitrov-win-the-2026-australian-open
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-grigor-dimitrov-win-the-2026-australian-open
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Feb 1, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T19:51:00.637Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $230.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $1.3M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $1.8M |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Feb 1, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> The 2026 Australian Open is set to take place from January 18 - February 1, 2026.
> 
> This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Australian Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
> 
> If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Australian Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> If the 2026 Australian Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the Australian Open (https://ausopen.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xce5b…047a` — 1,791,328.56 shares
- `0xd49b…bdf9` — 121,737.755 shares
- `0xbca1…ae4d` — 100,000 shares
- `0x7991…24ad` — 77,000 shares
- `0xa3ad…6866` — 54,781.504 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 2,817,544.296 shares
- `0x9ea9…f80b` — 23.79 shares
- `0x6fbc…b192` — 18.1 shares
- `0xb72d…ea23` — 11.11 shares
- `0xa19b…e04f` — 10 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T20:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T19:50:08.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 0¢ |
| Net change | +0.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-grigor-dimitrov-win-the-2026-australian-open` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Australian Open? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T19:51:00.637Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-grigor-dimitrov-win-the-2026-australian-open.
```

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