# Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 15% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 12 May 2026 13:37:32 GMT. 24h change +3.5pp, 24h volume $857.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-hezbollah-disarm-by-december-31-632-848
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-hezbollah-disarm-by-december-31-632-848
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** Mar 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-12T13:37:32.808Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **15¢** (15%) |
| Δ 1h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +3.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +4.0pp |
| 24h volume | $857.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $891.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $5.0K |
| Spread | 2.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Mar 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. 
> 
> For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
> 
> Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
> 
> Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
> 
> Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x7733…97bd` — 1,854.01 shares
- `0x635a…d6f0` — 1,715.988 shares
- `0x64db…89bb` — 818.716 shares
- `0x4cb8…e737` — 623 shares
- `0xd8d5…8935` — 500 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xf0ee…4b33` — 1,650 shares
- `0x1ad7…eac6` — 1,417.525 shares
- `0x40f1…15f9` — 1,254.822 shares
- `0x3a86…dea8` — 765.46 shares
- `0x82f3…11d8` — 695.454 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-05T14:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-12T13:37:07.000Z |
| Range | 7¢ → 15¢ |
| Net change | +4.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-hezbollah-disarm-by-december-31-632-848` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? — 15% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-12T13:37:32.808Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-hezbollah-disarm-by-december-31-632-848.
```

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