# Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 2% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 13:49:39 GMT. 24h change +0.8pp, 24h volume $267.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-iran-hold-a-presidential-election-by-june-30
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-hold-a-presidential-election-by-june-30
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T13:49:39.898Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **2¢** (2%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.8pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.1pp |
| 24h volume | $267.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $484.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $24.0K |
| Spread | 0.70pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. 
> 
> Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
> 
> Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x77c8…78af` — 19,000 shares
- `0x20f9…4cdb` — 3,214.286 shares
- `0x0f34…7684` — 2,469.122 shares
- `0x20e9…ecf8` — 1,373.355 shares
- `0xe907…cff6` — 1,358.026 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x3bb6…f40c` — 19,000 shares
- `0x70c1…1be2` — 3,825.78 shares
- `0x86c1…cace` — 3,113.453 shares
- `0x6139…6b7a` — 2,842.805 shares
- `0xef62…0179` — 1,785.077 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T14:00:12.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T13:49:08.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 2¢ |
| Net change | +0.1pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-iran-hold-a-presidential-election-by-june-30` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? — 2% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T13:49:39.898Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-iran-hold-a-presidential-election-by-june-30.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*