# Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 20:08:52 GMT. 24h change +72.4pp, 24h volume $1.3M.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-israel-announce-the-ceasefire-has-been-extended-by-may-15
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-announce-the-ceasefire-has-been-extended-by-may-15
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T20:08:52.782Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.3pp |
| Δ 24h | +72.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $1.3M |
| Lifetime volume | $1.4M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $291.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
> 
> If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
> 
> A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
> 
> Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
> 
> A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
> 
> This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 72.4pp in 24h with 4.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 28h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xbacd…ab35` — 267,672.413 shares
- `0x7804…7025` — 170,805.829 shares
- `0xdf17…97d1` — 91,646.865 shares
- `0x6bab…1292` — 74,200.532 shares
- `0x631c…450f` — 45,158.18 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfd2b…8e50` — 212,581.325 shares
- `0xcb01…ead3` — 144,076.792 shares
- `0xde7b…5f4b` — 97,126.302 shares
- `0xb98e…ecee` — 70,788.555 shares
- `0x0a2d…5349` — 41,680.504 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 65 |
| Window start | 2026-05-13T04:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T20:08:09.000Z |
| Range | 12¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +49.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-israel-announce-the-ceasefire-has-been-extended-by-may-15` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T20:08:52.782Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-israel-announce-the-ceasefire-has-been-extended-by-may-15.
```

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