# Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 11% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 12 May 2026 19:05:10 GMT. 24h change +2.0pp, 24h volume $286.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-israel-launch-a-ground-operation-in-iran-by-may-31-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-launch-a-ground-operation-in-iran-by-may-31-2026
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-12T19:05:10.387Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **11¢** (11%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +2.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +3.5pp |
| 24h volume | $286.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $410.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $11.6K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
> 
> For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
> 
> Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
> 
> Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
> 
> Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
> 
> Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice. 

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x6139…6b7a` — 4,999.954 shares
- `0xad52…11ac` — 3,893.917 shares
- `0x2c7a…6875` — 2,979.03 shares
- `0xc485…c2a2` — 2,954.869 shares
- `0x9fe8…2c91` — 2,062.422 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x436f…2c7f` — 10,422.667 shares
- `0x5011…220e` — 3,079.884 shares
- `0xe472…e7eb` — 2,538.384 shares
- `0xe54b…aa14` — 2,205.32 shares
- `0x8c57…f939` — 1,835.073 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-05T20:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-12T19:04:06.000Z |
| Range | 6¢ → 11¢ |
| Net change | +3.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-israel-launch-a-ground-operation-in-iran-by-may-31-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? — 11% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-12T19:05:10.387Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-israel-launch-a-ground-operation-in-iran-by-may-31-2026.
```

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