# Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 14% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 28 May 2026 14:55:07 GMT. 24h change -59.0pp, 24h volume $373.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-jannik-sinner-win-the-2026-mens-french-open
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-jannik-sinner-win-the-2026-mens-french-open
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Jun 7, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-28T14:55:07.631Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **14¢** (14%) |
| Δ 1h | -42.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -59.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -56.0pp |
| 24h volume | $373.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $1.1M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $54.9K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 7, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> The 2026 French Open is scheduled for May 18 - June 7, 2026.
> 
> This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 French Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
> 
> If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 French Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> If the 2026 French Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after July 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the French Open (https://www.rolandgarros.com/en-us/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 59.0pp in 24h with 6.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x661d…4dc6` — 54,251.371 shares
- `0x966c…9b1a` — 49,999.998 shares
- `0xde04…fa37` — 35,707.62 shares
- `0x63a4…0091` — 17,120.744 shares
- `0xd849…6ac7` — 14,542.839 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 200,728.079 shares
- `0x8b4c…36e8` — 100,165.967 shares
- `0xd202…8973` — 24,495.998 shares
- `0xfb64…5e23` — 19,946.527 shares
- `0xc58d…9373` — 17,579.643 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-21T14:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-28T13:35:04.000Z |
| Range | 3¢ → 75¢ |
| Net change | -68.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-jannik-sinner-win-the-2026-mens-french-open` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? — 14% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-28T14:55:07.631Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-jannik-sinner-win-the-2026-mens-french-open.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*