# Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 8% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 29 May 2026 20:56:20 GMT. 24h change +4.8pp, 24h volume $246.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-joao-fonseca-win-the-2026-mens-french-open
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-joao-fonseca-win-the-2026-mens-french-open
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Jun 7, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-29T20:56:20.190Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **8¢** (8%) |
| Δ 1h | -2.1pp |
| Δ 24h | +4.8pp |
| Δ 1w | +6.8pp |
| 24h volume | $246.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $8.0M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $68.5K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 7, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> The 2026 French Open is scheduled for May 18 - June 7, 2026.
> 
> This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 French Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
> 
> If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 French Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> If the 2026 French Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after July 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the French Open (https://www.rolandgarros.com/en-us/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **divergence** (confidence 62%): Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h -2.1pp vs. 24h +4.8pp.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x91ad…a5ca` — 33,175.692 shares
- `0xec59…bb35` — 20,000 shares
- `0xe72b…b0a0` — 18,468.36 shares
- `0x5908…2f11` — 15,212.842 shares
- `0x154e…7a37` — 15,167.387 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 285,202.899 shares
- `0xd218…b5c9` — 21,250.221 shares
- `0x7c60…b19c` — 16,151.03 shares
- `0x44a1…bd21` — 9,999.982 shares
- `0xc2c8…5471` — 6,077.396 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T21:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-29T20:55:04.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 10¢ |
| Net change | +7.2pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-joao-fonseca-win-the-2026-mens-french-open` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? — 8% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-29T20:56:20.190Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-joao-fonseca-win-the-2026-mens-french-open.
```

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