# Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 3% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 27 May 2026 02:20:31 GMT. 24h change -0.6pp, 24h volume $164.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-john-cornyn-win-the-2026-republican-primary
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-john-cornyn-win-the-2026-republican-primary
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** May 26, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-27T02:20:31.632Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **3¢** (3%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.4pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.6pp |
| Δ 1w | -2.1pp |
| 24h volume | $164.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $3.8M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $118.8K |
| Spread | 0.30pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 26, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. 
> 
> If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
> 

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x88e3…384e` — 296,612.367 shares
- `0xde7b…5f4b` — 95,241.631 shares
- `0x9d84…1344` — 48,032.288 shares
- `0xdbad…9c95` — 27,623.82 shares
- `0xde04…fa37` — 24,851.189 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 442,134.589 shares
- `0x0c0e…434e` — 108,833.768 shares
- `0x1295…5cfd` — 66,666 shares
- `0x7523…4c4c` — 57,749.87 shares
- `0xe7bd…ebce` — 25,535.56 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-20T03:00:03.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-27T02:20:04.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 6¢ |
| Net change | -5.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-john-cornyn-win-the-2026-republican-primary` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? — 3% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-27T02:20:31.632Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-john-cornyn-win-the-2026-republican-primary.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*