# Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 5% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 10:26:23 GMT. 24h change +1.0pp, 24h volume $136.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-josh-shapiro-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-977
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-josh-shapiro-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-977
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T10:26:23.379Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **5¢** (5%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.8pp |
| 24h volume | $136.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $7.7M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $252.3K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
> 
> Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 10%): Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x133b…2f22` — 478,667.93 shares
- `0x9d84…1344` — 254,650.629 shares
- `0x45b6…676f` — 225,403.945 shares
- `0x89a4…81de` — 143,574.29 shares
- `0x1c3c…1b01` — 130,261.086 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 2,752,359.237 shares
- `0x2099…d315` — 1,018.66 shares
- `0xa947…7196` — 1,010 shares
- `0xc7a6…78b9` — 725.74 shares
- `0xb6a3…467f` — 719.58 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 167 |
| Window start | 2026-04-28T11:00:03.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T10:00:04.000Z |
| Range | 4¢ → 5¢ |
| Net change | +0.8pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-josh-shapiro-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-977` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — 5% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T10:26:23.379Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-josh-shapiro-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-977.
```

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