# Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 61% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 07 May 2026 02:03:07 GMT. 24h change -4.0pp, 24h volume $213.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-keiko-fujimori-win-the-2026-peruvian-presidential-election
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-keiko-fujimori-win-the-2026-peruvian-presidential-election
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Jun 7, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-07T02:03:07.680Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **61¢** (61%) |
| Δ 1h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -4.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -4.0pp |
| 24h volume | $213.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $6.0M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $183.2K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 7, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
> 
> This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. 
> 
> This market includes any potential second round. 
> 
> If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
> 
> This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) 

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **divergence** (confidence 52%): Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h +1.0pp vs. 24h -4.0pp.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xdc03…804c` — 278,922.039 shares
- `0x1fee…ed5e` — 167,011.055 shares
- `0xcf60…47ce` — 144,826.885 shares
- `0x7664…2e50` — 111,363.14 shares
- `0x7765…ccb8` — 71,012.866 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 1,441,876.692 shares
- `0x3e5b…073b` — 118,592.784 shares
- `0xa938…bad0` — 49,511.013 shares
- `0x47a1…4244` — 31,335.868 shares
- `0x7fdc…1830` — 29,729.099 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-30T03:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-07T02:02:04.000Z |
| Range | 60¢ → 66¢ |
| Net change | -4.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-keiko-fujimori-win-the-2026-peruvian-presidential-election` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? — 61% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-07T02:03:07.680Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-keiko-fujimori-win-the-2026-peruvian-presidential-election.
```

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