# Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 96% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 27 May 2026 00:47:09 GMT. 24h change +0.7pp, 24h volume $39.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-ken-paxton-win-the-2026-republican-primary
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-ken-paxton-win-the-2026-republican-primary
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** May 26, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-27T00:47:09.333Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **96¢** (96%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.7pp |
| Δ 1w | +33.7pp |
| 24h volume | $39.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $5.0M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $247.4K |
| Spread | 0.40pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 26, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. 
> 
> If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
> 

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x0c0e…434e` — 60,253.697 shares
- `0x1117…3532` — 39,883.84 shares
- `0x9703…69c2` — 33,740.76 shares
- `0xcac9…200b` — 33,573.77 shares
- `0xecaa…77a9` — 33,094.409 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 442,134.589 shares
- `0xde7b…5f4b` — 169,853.885 shares
- `0xbb04…648c` — 128,176 shares
- `0xc658…b784` — 17,171.877 shares
- `0xbacd…ab35` — 15,291.62 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-17T15:00:11.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-24T14:31:04.000Z |
| Range | 46¢ → 96¢ |
| Net change | +34.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-ken-paxton-win-the-2026-republican-primary` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? — 96% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-27T00:47:09.333Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-ken-paxton-win-the-2026-republican-primary.
```

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