# Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 01:58:21 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $134.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-kevin-warsh-be-confirmed-as-fed-chair
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-kevin-warsh-be-confirmed-as-fed-chair
**Category:** Macro
**Resolves by:** Oct 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T01:58:21.817Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +1.1pp |
| 24h volume | $134.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $12.4M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $229.2K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Oct 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
> 
> Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
> 
> If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xdc4f…4652` — 894,739.03 shares
- `0xed10…d2e5` — 188,901.665 shares
- `0x45b3…35bc` — 146,572.366 shares
- `0x6328…36a4` — 109,999.991 shares
- `0x2785…70ae` — 107,917.28 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 893,896.739 shares
- `0x1cc1…b8df` — 252,294.53 shares
- `0xfd2b…8e50` — 249,567.24 shares
- `0xde7b…5f4b` — 203,910.194 shares
- `0xcf60…47ce` — 187,688.91 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-26T02:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T01:58:04.000Z |
| Range | 98¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +1.1pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-kevin-warsh-be-confirmed-as-fed-chair` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T01:58:21.817Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-kevin-warsh-be-confirmed-as-fed-chair.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*