# Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 7% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 23:19:53 GMT. 24h change +2.3pp, 24h volume $158.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-max-verstappen-be-the-2026-f1-drivers-champion
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-max-verstappen-be-the-2026-f1-drivers-champion
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Dec 6, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T23:19:53.319Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **7¢** (7%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | +2.3pp |
| Δ 1w | +3.3pp |
| 24h volume | $158.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $1.8M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $102.2K |
| Spread | 0.60pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Dec 6, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season.
> 
> This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
> 
> If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion.
> 
> If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x46ee…ae61` — 219,970.72 shares
- `0x1737…4e0d` — 21,499.745 shares
- `0x32c9…a2eb` — 17,688.98 shares
- `0xe542…0a37` — 16,071.167 shares
- `0xd829…95f9` — 14,299.97 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 779,066.634 shares
- `0xa49f…6b2e` — 19,361.373 shares
- `0x6814…a9e7` — 3,961.343 shares
- `0x21ff…0d71` — 1,197.523 shares
- `0x769b…ed95` — 399.968 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-26T00:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T23:18:04.000Z |
| Range | 3¢ → 7¢ |
| Net change | +3.7pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-max-verstappen-be-the-2026-f1-drivers-champion` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? — 7% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T23:19:53.319Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-max-verstappen-be-the-2026-f1-drivers-champion.
```

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