# Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 20:27:59 GMT. 24h change +0.1pp, 24h volume $190.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-michel-barnier-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-michel-barnier-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Apr 30, 2027
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T20:27:59.126Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.1pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.1pp |
| 24h volume | $190.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $2.7M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $221.2K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Apr 30, 2027

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.  This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. 
> 
> The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
> 
> This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
> 
> This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
> 
> This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4a65…06bb` — 148,664.187 shares
- `0x085d…d6a6` — 31,156.329 shares
- `0x193d…feeb` — 7,942.47 shares
- `0x2179…bedb` — 6,974.212 shares
- `0x095b…9e26` — 5,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 237,846.304 shares
- `0x3660…761f` — 401.606 shares
- `0xe4f1…d076` — 322.229 shares
- `0xc717…7241` — 308.112 shares
- `0xa7a7…df81` — 302.41 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-26T21:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T20:26:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 1¢ |
| Net change | +0.1pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-michel-barnier-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T20:27:59.126Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-michel-barnier-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election.
```

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