# Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 07 May 2026 12:07:50 GMT. 24h change +0.1pp, 24h volume $143.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-michelle-bolsonaro-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-michelle-bolsonaro-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Oct 4, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-07T12:07:50.926Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.1pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.1pp |
| 24h volume | $143.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $5.0M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $139.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Oct 4, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
> 
> This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
> 
> This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
> 
> This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x1229…df38` — 229,802.479 shares
- `0xa925…9f14` — 114,303.401 shares
- `0xeaa7…ff5f` — 100,000.283 shares
- `0xc1b3…501c` — 87,328.453 shares
- `0x629c…6c01` — 67,845.016 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 1,298,512.181 shares
- `0xd649…5fcc` — 780.12 shares
- `0x9277…57de` — 300 shares
- `0x1d35…4de0` — 297.895 shares
- `0x8bc5…6a18` — 192.578 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-30T13:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-07T12:06:04.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 0¢ |
| Net change | +0.1pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-michelle-bolsonaro-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-07T12:07:50.926Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-michelle-bolsonaro-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election.
```

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