# Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 03:31:17 GMT. 24h change +0.4pp, 24h volume $480.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-michelle-obama-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-777
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-michelle-obama-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-777
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T03:31:17.184Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.4pp |
| 24h volume | $480.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $24.6M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $1.7M |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
> 
> Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 10%): Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5d18…4972` — 1,153,650.387 shares
- `0x0c0e…434e` — 582,888.103 shares
- `0xe686…13cb` — 137,674.119 shares
- `0xbacd…ab35` — 111,110.836 shares
- `0x37a7…dde1` — 104,453.793 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 2,752,549.237 shares
- `0xd1af…3d83` — 3,448.485 shares
- `0x4aed…58da` — 2,108 shares
- `0x08ff…87ca` — 1,300 shares
- `0xcc67…3279` — 1,012 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T04:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T03:29:04.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 1¢ |
| Net change | +0.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-michelle-obama-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-777` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T03:31:17.184Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-michelle-obama-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-777.
```

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