# Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 17 May 2026 04:46:52 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $1.0M.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-mistral-have-the-best-ai-model-at-the-end-of-may-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-mistral-have-the-best-ai-model-at-the-end-of-may-2026
**Category:** AI
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-17T04:46:52.074Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.1pp |
| 24h volume | $1.0M |
| Lifetime volume | $1.4M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $176.4K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
> 
> Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
> 
> Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x0f8c…c0f9` — 128,669.92 shares
- `0xa445…0286` — 40,187.522 shares
- `0xd49b…bdf9` — 34,857.695 shares
- `0x27ab…e521` — 8,600.843 shares
- `0x3690…e16f` — 7,724.944 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 259,341.028 shares
- `0x6937…0428` — 436 shares
- `0x8b6d…7653` — 339.339 shares
- `0x1e06…4901` — 307.307 shares
- `0x281b…c4e5` — 225.225 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T05:00:11.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-17T04:46:07.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 0¢ |
| Net change | -0.1pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-mistral-have-the-best-ai-model-at-the-end-of-may-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-17T04:46:52.074Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-mistral-have-the-best-ai-model-at-the-end-of-may-2026.
```

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