# Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 10 May 2026 12:09:36 GMT. 24h change -0.1pp, 24h volume $252.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-mohammed-bin-salman-cease-to-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-saudi-arabia-by-june-30-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-mohammed-bin-salman-cease-to-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-saudi-arabia-by-june-30-2026
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-10T12:09:36.026Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.5pp |
| 24h volume | $252.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $461.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $24.3K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
> 
> If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xee67…67a6` — 1,309.007 shares
- `0x3329…2f5c` — 1,026.74 shares
- `0x31f8…a6da` — 854 shares
- `0xcdbf…1926` — 678.12 shares
- `0x66a1…80d9` — 391.535 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x21d0…ce91` — 2,370.63 shares
- `0x8a98…1b92` — 1,993 shares
- `0xcaab…24dd` — 692.947 shares
- `0x1f0a…f7aa` — 333.168 shares
- `0x69af…0a19` — 100 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-03T13:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-10T12:09:06.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 3¢ |
| Net change | -0.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-mohammed-bin-salman-cease-to-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-saudi-arabia-by-june-30-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-10T12:09:36.026Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-mohammed-bin-salman-cease-to-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-saudi-arabia-by-june-30-2026.
```

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