# Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 08:51:05 GMT. 24h change -28.4pp, 24h volume $162.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-mrbeasts-next-video-get-between-25-and-30-million-views-on-day-1-457
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-mrbeasts-next-video-get-between-25-and-30-million-views-on-day-1-457
**Category:** Culture
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T08:51:05.236Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | -28.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $162.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $162.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $27.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier.
> 
> If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
> 
> If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.
> 
> Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 28.4pp in 24h with 5.9× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xf9db…8dc1` — 8,648.053 shares
- `0xa81e…03dc` — 8,160.28 shares
- `0xe8dd…ec86` — 7,103.152 shares
- `0xdea3…1b1a` — 6,814.205 shares
- `0x3030…86ae` — 6,122.42 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 37,456.09 shares
- `0x8245…ebed` — 30,575.425 shares
- `0x69aa…8847` — 12,586.716 shares
- `0x128c…ad12` — 8,182.74 shares
- `0xa8fa…7dda` — 6,011.702 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 132 |
| Window start | 2026-04-27T21:00:25.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T08:50:04.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 50¢ |
| Net change | -41.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-mrbeasts-next-video-get-between-25-and-30-million-views-on-day-1-457` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T08:51:05.236Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-mrbeasts-next-video-get-between-25-and-30-million-views-on-day-1-457.
```

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