# Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 10:49:28 GMT. 24h change -24.1pp, 24h volume $140.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-mrbeasts-next-video-get-between-40-and-45-million-views-on-day-1-347
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-mrbeasts-next-video-get-between-40-and-45-million-views-on-day-1-347
**Category:** Culture
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T10:49:28.888Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.4pp |
| Δ 24h | -24.1pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $140.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $140.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $17.9K |
| Spread | 0.40pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier.
> 
> If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
> 
> If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.
> 
> Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x9c61…5f42` — 49,640.02 shares
- `0xa81e…03dc` — 8,160.28 shares
- `0x30ef…ac95` — 3,744.747 shares
- `0x5345…0ff4` — 3,704.439 shares
- `0x6f2d…430d` — 3,043.106 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 53,322.788 shares
- `0x69aa…8847` — 49,999.991 shares
- `0x8245…ebed` — 6,356.537 shares
- `0xf9a2…a79a` — 1,733.664 shares
- `0xf5d9…9e0e` — 1,114.985 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 134 |
| Window start | 2026-04-27T21:00:22.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T10:48:04.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 53¢ |
| Net change | -41.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-mrbeasts-next-video-get-between-40-and-45-million-views-on-day-1-347` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T10:49:28.888Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-mrbeasts-next-video-get-between-40-and-45-million-views-on-day-1-347.
```

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