# Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 28% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 21:09:16 GMT. 24h change +0.1pp, 24h volume $209.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-new-people-nl-gain-the-most-seats-in-the-next-russian-parliamentary-election
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-new-people-nl-gain-the-most-seats-in-the-next-russian-parliamentary-election
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** Sep 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T21:09:16.318Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **28¢** (28%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.1pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.5pp |
| 24h volume | $209.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $924.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $57.8K |
| Spread | 0.70pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Sep 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
> 
> This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
> 
> If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
> 
> In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
> 
> This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
> 
> This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5d0f…f0ad` — 20,437.587 shares
- `0xf285…1b96` — 13,024.814 shares
- `0x525e…c78d` — 9,063.83 shares
- `0x21c5…7228` — 7,347.001 shares
- `0x6b1e…263a` — 7,115.382 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 235,013 shares
- `0x7c8e…dd59` — 6,790.64 shares
- `0xcf19…6402` — 5,000 shares
- `0x8448…79bb` — 4,143.139 shares
- `0x2e48…95c7` — 2,434.311 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-08T22:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T21:08:08.000Z |
| Range | 27¢ → 31¢ |
| Net change | -0.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-new-people-nl-gain-the-most-seats-in-the-next-russian-parliamentary-election` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? — 28% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T21:09:16.318Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-new-people-nl-gain-the-most-seats-in-the-next-russian-parliamentary-election.
```

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