# Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 21:43:28 GMT. 24h change +50.4pp, 24h volume $275.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-paris-reach-the-uefa-champions-league-final
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-paris-reach-the-uefa-champions-league-final
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 7, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T21:43:28.948Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +4.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +50.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +49.5pp |
| 24h volume | $275.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $460.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $207.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 7, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 UEFA Champions League final. 
> 
> If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the UEFA Champions League final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
> 
> If the 2026 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 UEFA Champions League final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 87%): Probability moved up 50.4pp in 24h with 1.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 2h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x8b5a…00f2` — 43,150.24 shares
- `0xbdb0…f8ba` — 28,738.15 shares
- `0xee00…cea1` — 17,605.226 shares
- `0xd27c…c081` — 16,500 shares
- `0xa8ca…d535` — 10,416.667 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5c3a…020b` — 50,819.086 shares
- `0x9106…afcb` — 34,757.432 shares
- `0x2a2c…9bc1` — 32,337.665 shares
- `0x93fb…3e4a` — 17,331.214 shares
- `0xd604…cb5f` — 16,261.594 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-29T22:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T21:42:18.000Z |
| Range | 48¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +49.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-paris-reach-the-uefa-champions-league-final` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T21:43:28.948Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-paris-reach-the-uefa-champions-league-final.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*