# Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 02:00:31 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $127.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-pete-hegseth-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-pete-hegseth-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T02:00:31.888Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.1pp |
| 24h volume | $127.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $5.6M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $777.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
> 
> Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 10%): Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa771…162d` — 633,941.706 shares
- `0x1e1f…c855` — 319,000 shares
- `0x801b…e036` — 159,604.363 shares
- `0x2663…ed1f` — 133,505.445 shares
- `0x3e5b…073b` — 110,560.053 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 2,097,195.515 shares
- `0x2b0f…fd73` — 2,273.642 shares
- `0x0ec4…f4a4` — 1,066 shares
- `0x3e75…05cd` — 309.346 shares
- `0x606b…d3c2` — 222.334 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-26T03:00:20.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T02:00:03.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 1¢ |
| Net change | -0.1pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-pete-hegseth-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T02:00:31.888Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-pete-hegseth-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination.
```

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