# Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 57% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 21:42:05 GMT. 24h change +29.0pp, 24h volume $300.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-psg-win-the-202526-champions-league
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-psg-win-the-202526-champions-league
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T21:42:05.321Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **57¢** (57%) |
| Δ 1h | +2.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +29.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +27.0pp |
| 24h volume | $300.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $8.2M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $257.1K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This is a polymarket on whether the listed team will win the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
> 
> If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the tournament (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".
> 
> If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA Champions League (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 85%): Probability moved up 29.0pp in 24h with 1.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x85f0…3f67` — 636,665.396 shares
- `0x8b5a…00f2` — 118,061.382 shares
- `0x606d…1aaf` — 53,003.476 shares
- `0xee00…cea1` — 52,700.107 shares
- `0x499f…ccaf` — 51,724.138 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 1,930,303.941 shares
- `0x9106…afcb` — 90,000.995 shares
- `0xfd97…0ec5` — 19,330.948 shares
- `0xb2ee…9bdc` — 11,735.299 shares
- `0xd604…cb5f` — 10,686.63 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-29T22:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T21:41:04.000Z |
| Range | 28¢ → 57¢ |
| Net change | +27.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-psg-win-the-202526-champions-league` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? — 57% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T21:42:05.321Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-psg-win-the-202526-champions-league.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*