# Will Putin visit China by May 31?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 17 May 2026 04:41:29 GMT. 24h change +1.6pp, 24h volume $184.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-putin-visit-china-by-may-31
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-putin-visit-china-by-may-31
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-17T04:41:29.812Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +1.6pp |
| Δ 1w | +30.3pp |
| 24h volume | $184.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $374.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $164.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> If Vladimir Putin visits China by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Putin physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Whether or not Putin enters Chinese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Vladimir Putin, the Federal Government of Russia, and the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xfaf9…f4c4` — 49,999.923 shares
- `0x5e3d…6143` — 19,874.966 shares
- `0x4004…c40b` — 12,341.258 shares
- `0x2c39…56dc` — 4,515.75 shares
- `0x9f5f…6fbd` — 3,652.86 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfde6…7ed6` — 31,314.608 shares
- `0x12ac…8669` — 22,922.25 shares
- `0x3f6f…e536` — 7,000 shares
- `0x1e2d…2b55` — 6,666.667 shares
- `0x46a1…2736` — 6,004.863 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T05:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-17T04:39:06.000Z |
| Range | 63¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +29.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-putin-visit-china-by-may-31` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Putin visit China by May 31? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-17T04:41:29.812Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-putin-visit-china-by-may-31.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*