# Will Rebecca Scriven win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 03:32:36 GMT. 24h change -0.1pp, 24h volume $155.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-rebecca-scriven-win-the-by-election-for-the-seat-of-farrer-in-the-australian-house-of-representatives
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-rebecca-scriven-win-the-by-election-for-the-seat-of-farrer-in-the-australian-house-of-representatives
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 9, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T03:32:36.009Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.4pp |
| 24h volume | $155.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $265.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $11.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 9, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026.
> 
> This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.
> 
> If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc0a6…2d6c` — 151,500 shares
- `0x7c2c…407e` — 9,600.55 shares
- `0xdb49…340b` — 5,040.623 shares
- `0x7ab6…fa77` — 1,112.19 shares
- `0x56c2…6219` — 901.24 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xff7b…9179` — 150,884.55 shares
- `0xa5ef…2966` — 12,371.392 shares
- `0x85b8…6b6a` — 4,999.993 shares
- `0x2375…691f` — 437.011 shares
- `0x0457…816d` — 310.31 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T04:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T03:31:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 0¢ |
| Net change | -0.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-rebecca-scriven-win-the-by-election-for-the-seat-of-farrer-in-the-australian-house-of-representatives` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Rebecca Scriven win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T03:32:36.009Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-rebecca-scriven-win-the-by-election-for-the-seat-of-farrer-in-the-australian-house-of-representatives.
```

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