# Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 6% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 21 May 2026 07:22:40 GMT. 24h change -1.8pp, 24h volume $29.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-rebecca-shepherd-win-the-2026-makerfield-by-election
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-rebecca-shepherd-win-the-2026-makerfield-by-election
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** TBD
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-21T07:22:40.378Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **6¢** (6%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | -1.8pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $29.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $58.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $85.7K |
| Spread | 0.80pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** TBD

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
> 
> This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
> 
> If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5504…6047` — 81,680.771 shares
- `0x58df…b4ad` — 63,987.438 shares
- `0xc2ab…2db7` — 17,719.919 shares
- `0x45ea…be16` — 8,786.028 shares
- `0x5068…32bf` — 8,639.161 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x8a4c…532b` — 44,933.599 shares
- `0xce71…83bc` — 44,517.649 shares
- `0xdbf7…fbea` — 27,576.231 shares
- `0x1970…398d` — 23,275.001 shares
- `0x6640…2202` — 17,274.896 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 45 |
| Window start | 2026-05-18T21:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-20T16:23:06.000Z |
| Range | 4¢ → 8¢ |
| Net change | +0.3pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-rebecca-shepherd-win-the-2026-makerfield-by-election` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? — 6% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-21T07:22:40.378Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-rebecca-shepherd-win-the-2026-makerfield-by-election.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*